IS MACK'S MOUTH WRITING CHECKS HIS ASH CAN'T CASH?

 

                                                                          

 TEXAS LONHORNS

2013 Predicted Conference Finish: 4th

LONGHORNS @ A GLANCE:
Head Coach: Mack Brown
Stadium:  Darrell K Royal- Texas Memorial Stadium (101,851) / Austin, TX
2012 Record  9-4 (5-4)
   Home 4-2
   Away 4-1
   Neutral / Bowl 1-1
Bowl Game; Yes, defeated Oregon State 31-27 in Alamo Bowl
Returning Starters 19
   Offense 10
   Defense 9
Longhorn Laundry List: Install new hurry up offense, address LB position and pray that kicking game doesn't lose a game or two
Key Game K-State @ home 9/21
2013 vs. OU: October 12th @ Cotton Bowl / Dallas

DID YOU KNOW?
Texas has been the nation's third most successful team since Mack Brown took over in 1998, having won 150 games over those 15 seasons.  Boise State (162) and Oklahoma (150) are the only two with more wins over that same span.

"Our team is at a different point now, we're an older football team, we get it"
     "This will be the best team we have had in three years."
          "2013 is the season we have been pointing too, this is our year."
               "Now we got to shut up and do it"
                    -Texas Head Coach Mack Brown

For the Texas Longhorns, the time is now...right now...this year...this season.  There are no more excuses to fall back on; mediocrity can no longer be justified.  Changed have been made, cohesiveness has been found and all things adrift have been righted. The young have aged, experience has been gathered and an identity has been found. Yes, Mack, now comes the hard part...you have to shut up and do it.
While it may look like Mack didn't do himself any favors by verbally painting himself into a corner with his 'win in 2013 or bust attitude,' the fact of the matter is, the expectations of Longhorn fans already had him placed there.

Longhorn fans are not just tired of being patient; they are also tired of being embarrassed.  Since the Longhorns loss to Alabama in the 2009 title game, the Horns have gone a very pedestrian like 22-16.  Included in that 3 season stretch was:

- The 5-7 meltdown of 2010. After starting out 3-0, the Longhorns would lose 7 of their next 9, resulting in their first losing season since 1997.  Five of those losses were at home, including an embarrassing 28-21 loss to Iowa State, their first ever to the Cyclones.
-The demise and transfer of Garrett Gilbert. Gilbert, from nearby Austin Westlake, was the 2008 USA Today POY, and top ranked QB in the class of 2009.  He was expected to the franchise QB after Colt McCoy left, but never came close to meeting those expectations and subsequently transferred to SMU.
-Three straight losses to Oklahoma, the last two by a combined score of 118-38.

There are those in the national media that agree that this is the year that Brown and the Longhorns return to national prominence...and I will admit that there are quite a few reasons to agree...things like:

1. 19 returning starters
2. What could be the best stable of RB's in the country
3. Their entire offensive line returns
4. What should be one of the best secondary's in the country
5. A defensive line that might be the Big 12's best

No team, outside of Tuscaloosa at least, is without its weaknesses, the Longhorns included.  They have two good, possibly great receivers, but I question whether they have the depth at the position that they are going to need in order to run the hurry-up offense Applewhite wants to employ this year.  The LB position was a big problem last year, and while they get their best LB Jordan Hicks back from injury, I am skeptical that they are much improved in that area.  The Texas kicking game is dreadful; Texas fans can only hope that the kicking game doesn't cost them a game...or more.

But the reason given by most as to why the Horns are the favorites in the Big 12 and should be included in the national title conversation...is the very reason I think they shouldn't.  That reason is their quarterback, David Ash.

Why is everyone so excited about David Ash?  I realize I am an obsessed Sooner fan, but I really tried to take a step back and be objective about this...here is what I came up with:

What is being said:  Texas & TCU have an advantage over the rest of the Big 12 because they are the only two teams with returning QB that have extensive experience.
What The OAS says: I will agree that having a returning starting QB has some advantage to it, but unless that QB is great, the advantage is minimal. In my opinion, David Ash was the 10th best QB in the Big 12 last year.  That's right, 10th. WVA, OU, Baylor, KSU, Texas Tech and TCU (Pachall) all had better QB's than Ash last year....and Oklahoma State had three that I would have taken over Ash. I'm not saying Ash completely sucks, but if 9 other QB's in the conference hadn't run out of electives to enroll in, David Ash is not a why, he is a why not.

What is being said:  David Ash is more mature, is showing signs of being a leader and is poised to take the next step.
What The OAS says: OK, maybe so.  But while I guess it is a better sign to see your QB be more of a leader during the offseason than if he wasn't, the measure of a QB will come only when the season starts. For a QB to be an effective leader, he has to not only be good, but he has to be good in the big ball games.
It is a statistical fact that QB's make their biggest improvement between year one and year two of being a starter.  David Ash's big improvement last year from 2011 shows he is no exception.  If that theory hold true, then it is not unrealistic to believe that the David Ash of last 2012, is pretty much the David Ash you should expect to see in 2013.  That has to be a little unnerving for Texas fans, because this is the "much improved" David Ash of last year:

-An 8-5 record as a starter. (12-6 career)
-In the 5 losses Ash had 1 touchdown pass vs 7 interceptions
-The 8 wins came against teams with a combined record of 46-56...with none of the teams Texas beat winning more than 8 games (Alamo opponent Oregon State won 9).
-He lost to OU by 42.  Actually when Ash came out of the game, the Longhorns had score 8 points...NONE of which were scored by Ash and the offense. It was Case McCoy who came in and engineered two trash touchdown drives to make the score a more 'respectable' 63-21.  Speaking of McCoy...
-Ash played so poorly against 1-11 Kansas that he was benched. If not for Chase McCoy leading the Longhorns back with 14 late 4th quarter points, the Horns would have suffered one of the most humiliating defeats in school history.

So while it is true that Ash's stats were much better in 2012 than in 2011, his stats against the better teams in the conference still sucked.

I guess what bothers me, is that everyone seems to be basing their Ash exuberance on the fact that he is a year older and for the way he rallied Texas to victory over the Oregon State Beavers in the Alamo Bowl.  Hell, if growing older and 'licking Beavers,' is all it takes to get people excited in Austin, then why don't they just name Matthew McConaughey as the Longhorn QB.  (With any luck, my mother won't get that joke.)

I would also argue that some of Ash's experience will be offset by the new hurry up offense that Applewhite and the Horns are implementing this year.  That change seems strange to me, since the strength of the Texas offense would seem to be their rushing attack.  While there is no law that says you can't run the ball out of the hurry up, usually the way that offense is most effective, is to tire out the opposing defense by throwing the football.  Teams can struggle with the transition to a hurry up offense...so a lot is riding on Ash being much improved this year...if not, the new offense might just be playing into the opposing teams hands, and I mean that literally.

 

With 19 returning starters, Texas should be good this year.  But I don't see them being great unless David Ash's performance improves dramatically against the top opponents on the Longhorn schedule.  I guess I am skeptical of that improvement being enough to get the Horns over the top.

 

Mack Brown says this is David Ash's team.  With no excuses to fall back on, Mack better hope Ash is the 'real McCoy' this season, because if he isn't, David Ash's team might have a new head coach next year. 

 

Just the opinion of one mildly interested guy

 

The Overweight Armchair Sooner

 

Buddy Putty